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Jasoncix

01 Nov 2025 - 11:29 pm

What we're covering
• Zelensky in Washington: European leaders will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, as he meets with US President Donald Trump this afternoon. Trump said Zelensky must agree to some of Russia’s conditions — including that Ukraine cede Crimea and agree never to join NATO — for the war to end.
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• Potential security guarantees: At last week’s summit with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to allow security guarantees for Ukraine and made concessions on “land swaps” as part of a potential peace deal, US envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN. Zelensky suggested that such guarantees would need to be stronger than those that “didn’t work” in the past. Russia has yet to mention such agreements.
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• On the ground: Zelensky condemned Russia’s latest strikes across Ukraine, which killed at least 10 people, saying the Kremlin intends to “humiliate diplomatic efforts” and underscores “why reliable security guarantees are required.”
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31 Oct 2025 - 09:24 pm

He has had more cordial, more productive, meetings with US President Donald Trump since that now-notorious encounter on February 28.
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But for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, today’s meeting at the White House will surely trigger awkward memories of that very public clash with the US President almost six months ago. Navigating the treacherous waters in which he finds himself today will be no easier.
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Increasingly, it appears likely he will be told to give up land in exchange for some sort of security guarantees.

The land side of that “deal” will be obvious. It can be drawn on a map. Crimea: gone, says Trump. Donetsk: give all of it up, says Putin, apparently with Trump’s blessing.

But the security guarantees? That’s where far more challenging ideas, like credibility, come into play. Could Zelensky rely on the US to deliver on some NATO Article 5-type promise, to defend Ukraine if Russia breaches any peace agreement?

Putin himself might even see an opportunity to further weaken the West, by testing any such guarantees, confident they are a bluff he could call. But all that would be for the future.

For now, it looks like Zelensky will have to weigh up whether he could bring his country with him if he were to cede territory to Russia – some of it still in Ukrainian hands – or whether he and his people could bear the costs of potentially defying Trump a Nobel Peace Prize, and say no.

If he chose the latter, would the US President immediately end all remaining American support for Ukraine, in terms of military aid and intelligence sharing, for instance?

If that happened, to what extent could Zelensky’s European allies really step in and fill in the gaps left by any full US retreat?

It is an almost impossibly hard choice before him.
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31 Oct 2025 - 09:24 pm

He has had more cordial, more productive, meetings with US President Donald Trump since that now-notorious encounter on February 28.
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But for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, today’s meeting at the White House will surely trigger awkward memories of that very public clash with the US President almost six months ago. Navigating the treacherous waters in which he finds himself today will be no easier.
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Increasingly, it appears likely he will be told to give up land in exchange for some sort of security guarantees.

The land side of that “deal” will be obvious. It can be drawn on a map. Crimea: gone, says Trump. Donetsk: give all of it up, says Putin, apparently with Trump’s blessing.

But the security guarantees? That’s where far more challenging ideas, like credibility, come into play. Could Zelensky rely on the US to deliver on some NATO Article 5-type promise, to defend Ukraine if Russia breaches any peace agreement?

Putin himself might even see an opportunity to further weaken the West, by testing any such guarantees, confident they are a bluff he could call. But all that would be for the future.

For now, it looks like Zelensky will have to weigh up whether he could bring his country with him if he were to cede territory to Russia – some of it still in Ukrainian hands – or whether he and his people could bear the costs of potentially defying Trump a Nobel Peace Prize, and say no.

If he chose the latter, would the US President immediately end all remaining American support for Ukraine, in terms of military aid and intelligence sharing, for instance?

If that happened, to what extent could Zelensky’s European allies really step in and fill in the gaps left by any full US retreat?

It is an almost impossibly hard choice before him.
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